Where Seniors are Most (and Least) Likely to Outlive Their Savings

Older Americans in nearly every state are on track to outlive their retirement income and savings, a new analysis from Seniorly has found.

Across the U.S., older adults face an average gap of about $115,000 between what they’re projected to spend during retirement and what they’re likely to bring in from Social Security, savings, and investments. In 41 states and Washington, D.C., retirees are expected to fall short. Only nine states do seniors have enough of a financial cushion to fully cover their costs.

That’s the alarming takeaway from a new Seniorly report on where seniors are most and least likely to outlive their savings. The findings come as the surging cost of living puts even more pressure on older adults living on fixed incomes and retirement plans.

Older adults are already bracing for the challenge. Today, more than half of Gen Xers and 40% of Baby Boomers expect to outlive their savings, according to a survey from Northwestern Mutual.

Modern retirement can easily last 20 or 30 years, yet the cost of housing, health care, food, and other essentials has climbed sharply – eroding the value of even well-planned nest eggs. A dollar doesn’t stretch as far as it once did, and a single unexpected expense, like a medical emergency or major home repair, can throw off an otherwise solid financial plan.

The “magic number” that Americans now think they need to retire is $1.26 million, Northwestern Mutual found. But in many places, even that may not be enough to guarantee peace of mind.

In some states, affordable living costs and modest expenses make it easier to stretch savings and maintain a decent quality of life. In others, high prices can drain those savings long before a person’s needs begin to decline.

To understand how retirement readiness varies by location, Seniorly analyzed where older adults are most and least likely to outlive their savings. Using the latest available data on life expectancy at age 65, Social Security income, household net worth, and cost-of-living metrics, we estimated how far seniors’ financial resources are likely to stretch over a typical retirement in each state. More details are included in the methodology below.

The results reveal sharp geographic divides, and highlight where older Americans are best positioned to age with financial security.

In this report, a positive cushion means retirees in that state, on average, have enough income and assets to cover their expected expenses. A negative number signals a likely shortfall, with seniors at greater risk of outliving their financial resources.

Key Findings

• New Yorkers will outlive savings: New York, along with No. 50 Hawaii and No. 49 Washington, D.C., faces the largest shortfall due to high expenses that exceed even strong incomes. In No. 51 New York, the typical senior will face a gap of about $448,000 between costs and income from investments, retirement savings, and Social Security benefits.
• Washington is the best state: Driven by relatively high projected income and moderate expenses (a surplus of about $146,000). No. 2 Utah and No. 3 Montana have similar trends but smaller cushions: $121,000 and $43,000, respectively.
• Longevity amplifies financial pressure in some wealthy states: States with higher life expectancy at age 65 (e.g., 20.6 years in No. 50 Hawaii) tend to be more likely to outlive their savings, highlighting how living longer increases the financial burden in retirement.
• Seniors less likely to outlive savings in states with lower life expectancy: Meanwhile, states with lower life expectancies (e.g., 16.1 years in No. 35 West Virginia and No. 40 Mississippi) tend to have smaller gaps between retirement expenses and spending – but this can mask broader issues around poor health among seniors there.

Where Seniors Are Most Likely to Outlive Their Savings

Some states pose big challenges for retirees. New York, ranked 51st overall, tops the list for the toughest financial outlook, with seniors facing a huge gap of $448,000 between what they’ll need and what they’re expected to have. That’s because while New York is one of the most expensive states for seniors (they’ll need $1.12 million to cover living expenses over 19.4 years of expected retirement) they can expect to collect just $670,000 between retirement benefits, savings, and other investments.

No. 50 Hawaii and No. 49 Washington, D.C., also rank among the worst, with seniors also facing major shortfalls ($417,000 and and $407,000, respectively) due to sky-high living costs. Rounding out the bottom five are No. 48 Alaska and No. 47 California, where expenses like housing and healthcare put a heavy strain on retirement savings.

Where Seniors Are Least Likely to Outlive Their Savings

In some states, retirees have a strong financial edge. No. 1 Washington tops the list, with seniors enjoying a healthy cushion of about $146,000 between what they’re projected to earn and what they’ll need to spend. That’s thanks to a combination of a high retirement income ($1.13 million) and expenses that, while not the lowest, are still manageable compared to many other high-earning states.

No. 2 Utah follows closely, with seniors expected to have a surplus of about $121,000 – another example of strong incomes (about $994,000) paired with moderate living costs ($873,000). No. 3 Montana, No. 4 Colorado, and No. 5 Iowa also land in the top five. Montana retirees have a projected financial cushion of about $43,000, while those in Colorado and Iowa enjoy smaller but still meaningful surpluses of around $38,000 and $32,000, respectively.

These top-ranked states show how retirees can fare best when decent nest eggs are matched with a cost of living that doesn't eat away at every dollar. In these places, seniors are less likely to face the stress of running out of money later in life.

Where Seniors Have the Biggest Nest Eggs

Retirement income isn't just about Social Security – it also reflects how much seniors have managed to save. Despite its poor overall ranking, seniors in No. 50 Hawaii actually have the biggest financial cushion in the country, with a projected income of $1.32 million over their retirement years.

Seniors in No. 1 Washington, No. 46 Massachusetts and No. 7 Maryland can also expect to bring in at least $1 million in their golden years, underscoring that wealth does not guarantee financial security once expenses are factored in.

At the other end of the spectrum, seniors in No. 43 Louisiana and No. 40 Mississippi have the smallest nest eggs, with projected retirement incomes of just $479,000 and $488,000, respectively. No. 35 West Virginia, No. 41 Arkansas and No. 36 Alabama are also near the bottom, with projected incomes of $526,000 or below.

Where Seniors’ Cost of Living is Highest

Retirement costs can make a big difference in how far savings stretch, and some states are far more affordable than others.

No. 50 Hawaii is the most expensive place to retire, with seniors facing projected lifetime expenses of $1.74 million. Meanwhile No. 46 Massachusetts and No. 47 California aren’t far behind, with estimated expenses of $1.31 million and $1.26 million, respectively. These high costs reflect the steep price tags on housing, healthcare, and everyday essentials.

On the opposite end, No. 25 Oklahoma and No. 40 Mississippi offer the most affordable retirements, both with projected expenses below $650,000. No. 8 Kansas hit the sweet spot, with total retirement costs coming in around $746,000 – but expected income even higher.

These states help show how location alone can influence whether seniors are likely to outlive their savings, even without major differences in income.

5 Tips for a More Secure Retirement

No matter where you live, preparing for retirement requires more than just saving. It means thinking ahead to anticipate your needs, costs, and lifestyle. Here are a few ways to stay ahead of the curve:

1. Know your numbers. Estimate how long your personal savings need to last using tools such as budget planners tailored to retirees.
2. Don’t rely on averages. If you live in a high-cost area or expect to spend more on health care, plan accordingly – and consider moving to a lower-cost state if flexibility allows.
3. Maximize your benefits. Work with a financial advisor or use free tools to optimize Social Security claiming strategies, tax planning, and required minimum distributions.
4. Plan for the unexpected. Health costs and inflation can add up fast. Long-term care insurance, an emergency fund, and estate planning can help protect your future.
5. Talk it through. Whether it’s with a financial advisor, partner, or adult children, open conversations can help ensure your savings align with your goals and values.

Conclusion

Whether you're planning for your own future or helping a loved one make smart choices, understanding trends in cost of living and finances can make a real difference in the ability to age with peace of mind, independence, and dignity. For those weighing options for retirement or long-term care, location matters more than ever.

Methodology

To determine where seniors are most and least likely to outlive their savings, we analyzed the latest available data across a range of economic and demographic indicators.

First, we used state-level life expectancy at age 65 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to estimate how many years seniors are likely to spend in retirement. We then calculated expected retirement income over those years, combining average annual retirement benefits (Social Security Administration) with median net worth, including financial assets and retirement account savings (Census Bureau).

For a few states where median net worth data wasn’t available, we used the national average net worth of $176,500. We also adjusted median household net worth for seniors to reflect that typical senior households hold about 80% more net worth than the national average household, based on Census data. We included home equity in net worth calculations to account for assets that seniors may opt to sell to help cover their retirements.

To estimate expected retirement expenses, we started with seniors’ average spending on essentials like housing, groceries, transportation, and healthcare across the U.S. (Bureau of Labor Statistics), then adjusted these figures for each state’s cost of living (Missouri Economic Research and Information Center). This gave us a realistic picture of how much seniors are likely to spend annually in each state.

By comparing projected income with projected spending over their expected remaining years, we identified which states give seniors the best chance of covering their retirement – and where they are most at risk of outliving their savings under current economic conditions.